According to Drewry’s recently published Container Census and Leasing Annual Review & Forecast 2022/23 report, the global pool of shipping containers increased by 13% in 20221, which means three times prior, that means a record numbers of shipping containers across the globe.
The estimates are that as many as 6M TEU of surplus containers now exist in the global equipment pool, but even so, upcoming year 2023, the slot capacity will increase with at least 6-7M TEU, due to delivery schedule of new ships, so the surplus is supposed to be absorbed by 2024. Also there is evidence to suggest that some carrier are planning already to have more buffer stock in their equipment pools, while fewer new containers will be built in the next two years.
Drewry forecasts that output in 2022 and 2023 will be much lower than last year, at 3.9m teu and 2.4m teu respectively, with replacement accounting for most of the orders. While newbuild and secondhand prices will fall, a return to the very low prices of 2019 is not anticipated as manufacturers are expected to manage their capacity and pricing strategies very carefully. Meanwhile, the secondary market remains robust and the uses to which ex-trading containers can be put to use continues to expand.
Looking ahead, ocean carriers will be the main buyers of equipment over the next two years, with lessors than taking control again, raising their share of the pool to 54% by 2026. With all these said, we should expect the prices to stay the same for this year and starting with next year, if fuel and shipping itself won’t go through the roof, because who know what other pandemic, war or world wide event, to come down a bit and normalize, but not going back to the pre-pandemic prices.
